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Count for all projects in 2012

Impact and Adaptation Studies 160
Regional Climate Analysis and Modeling 88
GHG Emissions Reduction 83
GHG Inventory Methods 61
others 89
481

This site represents only a subset of projects. Please see agency publications for official budget figures.

The State of California has been supporting regional climate change research for more than a decade. These studies have complemented research at the national level and have been designed to inform climate policy deliberations and actions in California. This Research Catalog provides basic information about past and ongoing climate change related studies that state agencies have conducted or commissioned since the early 2000s. The purpose of this catalog is to document California’s research efforts and to facilitate the exchange of information.

To find out more about these projects, please click here to obtain contact information for representatives from different state agencies.

Search results for 2012 Research Projects


  1. Climate Change Scenarios for the San Francisco Region
    Lead Agency: CEC
    Principal Investigator(s): Dan Cayan, Mary Tyree, Sam Iacobellis (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego)
    Year finished: 2012
    Published/Product: http://energy.ca.gov/publications/displayOneReport.php?pubNum=CEC-500-2012-042
    Notes
    Climate model simulations were used to investigate possible changes in regional climate over California. To accomplish this, the model simulations were downscaled from the coarse global climate model resolution (usually 150 kilometers [km] or greater horizontal grid spacing) to about 12 km horizontal grid spacing over the California region, using statistical techniques. The global model output was used in a statistical modeling scheme to produce sea-level projections for selected California coastal sites. Six global climate models and two greenhouse emissions scenarios, the medium-high emissions Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and the lower emissions SRES B1 were considered. By the end of the twenty-first century, the envelope of warming in the models projections, as an annual average, ranges from about 2°C to 6°C (about 3.5 °F to 11°F). On average, mean annual temperature of the A2 scenarios is about 1.5°C (about 3°F) greater than that of the B1 scenario. There is greater warming in summer than in winter. All simulations indicate that hot daytime and nighttime temperatures (heat waves) increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration from the historical period and during the projected period through the first half of the twenty-first century. Projected precipitation is marked by considerable variability between years and decades. In the southern half of California, the models show a decline in annual precipitation. Sea level, at hourly intervals for the historical through the projected twenty-first century, is estimated for selected tide gage sites along the California coast, with rises in the sample of simulations considered here ranging from 27 to 48 centimeters (cm) (11 to 19 in) over historical levels by 2050, and ranging from 77 cm to 140 cm (30 to 55 in) over historical levels by 2100. The rise of mean sea level would provoke an increase in extreme events, as gaged by exceedances above a relatively high or rare historical threshold. Such events become much more frequent and have longer durations than has been seen historically.


  2. Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Study for California
    Lead Agency: CEC
    Principal Investigator(s): Michael Hanemann, Dan Cayan, Susi Moser, Etc. (The Regents of the University of California/CIEE)
    Year finished: 2012, Budget: $2,535,927
    Published/Product: 500-09-038
    Notes
    Several studies including studies on energy, public health, water, etc. It also include local/regional adaptation studies


  3. Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Study for California: Legal Analysis of Barriers to Adaptation for California’s Water Sector
    Lead Agency: CEC
    Principal Investigator(s): Hanemann, M., D. Lambe, And D. Farber (University of California, Berkeley)
    Year finished: 2012
    Published/Product: http://energy.ca.gov/publications/displayOneReport.php?pubNum=CEC-500-2012-019
    Notes
    This project focused on the legal and institutional framework associated with California’s water rights allocation system, and identifies changes to that framework that would facilitate adaptation to climate change. Since such changes may be difficult to accomplish, the project focused largely, but not exclusively, on changes that may be politically feasible now or in the future.500-09-038


  4. Coastal Flooding Potential Projections: 2000–2100
    Lead Agency: CEC
    Principal Investigator(s): Bromirski, P. D., D. R. Cayan, N. Graham, R. E. Flick, And M. Tyree (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
    Year finished: 2012
    Published/Product: http://energy.ca.gov/publications/displayOneReport.php?pubNum=CEC-500-2012-011
    Notes
    The change in flooding potential along the California coast over the twenty ‐ first century was estimated from both ocean wave and sea level rise projections produced from global climate model data. Changes in flooding potential were inferred from changes in wave runup (the vertical height reached by wave ‐ driven water levels), which depends on the inst antaneous sea level (or still water level), beach slope, and wave height and wave period. The still water level is the superposition of regional (or relative) mean sea level, the tide, and non ‐ tide sea level fluctuations. Non ‐ tide sea level fluctuations include both the steric response a ssociated with El Niño–related variability that can persist up to a year or more, and local storm–forced variability (storm surge). The potential for greatest coastal flooding occurs when extremes in waves and still water level occur nearly simultaneously. Wave activity provides the primary driving force for coastal flooding. Wave model significant wave height (Hs) and non ‐ tide sea level projections were generated for a sev en global climate model simulations. Comparison of the Hs and non ‐ tide projections with wave model hindcast Hs and observed non ‐ tide fluctuations suggest that the characteristics and incidence of extreme Hs and non ‐ tide fluctuations will not increase appreciably over the twe nty ‐ first century. Thus, because astronomical tide ‐ forcing will not increase, increases in relative mean sea level will largely determine the potential for increased ocean ‐ driven flooding along the California coast. If relative mean sea level along the California coast reaches global mean sea level rise projections as sociated with climate change, extreme flooding events expected to occur once in about 100 years under stationary relative mean sea levels will occur annually. 500-09-038


  5. Community-Based Climate Adaptation Planning: Case Study of Oakland, California
    Lead Agency: CEC
    Principal Investigator(s): Garzon, Catalina (Pacific Instutute)
    Year finished: 2012
    Published/Product: http://energy.ca.gov/publications/displayOneReport.php?pubNum=CEC-500-2012-038
    Notes
    Adaptation planning it still in its infancy and local governments are struggling with how to navigate the planning process. A handful of communities in the United States have embarked on planning efforts and have engaged the local community in some manner. Here, we provide a detailed analysis of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options in a major economic center: Oakland, California. The goal of this study is to inform the development of a comprehensive and equitable climate adaptation plan effort. This research project engages active members of the Oakland Climate Action Coalition, including community-based organizations and resident leaders, in analyzing both the impacts of, and social vulnerabilities to, climate change.


  6. Consequences of Climate Change for Native Plants and Conservation
    Lead Agency: CEC
    Principal Investigator(s): Hannah, Lee, M. Rebecca Shaw, Makihiko Ikegami, Patrick R. Roehrdanz, Oliver Soong, And James Thorne (Conservation International, Environmental Defense Fund, University of California, Santa Barbara, University of California, Davis)
    Year finished: 2012
    Published/Product: http://energy.ca.gov/publications/displayOneReport.php?pubNum=CEC-500-2012-024
    Notes
    Species ranges are dynamic, and often respond to changes in global climate. Recorded increases of global average temperatures through the twentieth century have already resulted in observed shifts of species ranges within California. Projections of future species distributions under climate change are possible through models that correlate known species occurrences with observed historical climate, then project this correlation onto scenarios of climate change. Previous work in California has focused on modeling changes in the distribution of vegetation and species. This study expands on this work through (1) modeling species at finer spatial scales than previously possible, (2) applying those models in advanced conservation planning tools, and (3) illustrating the intersection of human adaptation and conservation under climate change. Section 1 presents a suite of species distribution models created with climate and water balance data that has been statistically downscaled to finer horizontal resolutions than previous statewide modeling efforts. 500-09-038


  7. Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: An Assessment of Adaptation Strategies and Scenario Development for Resource Managers
    Lead Agency: CEC
    Principal Investigator(s): Sara Moore, Erika Zavaleta, Rebecca Shaw (University of California, Santa Cruz)
    Year finished: 2012
    Published/Product: http://energy.ca.gov/publications/displayOneReport.php?pubNum=CEC-500-2012-027
    Notes
    This paper contributes an analysis of natural resource management tools for planning for climate change, including a case study on scenario planning, to the Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Study for California.It presents the findings of a literature review on decision making tools for climate change planning and consultations with adaptation planners, resource managers, and scientists. In addition, it discusses lessons learned from a one‐day climate change scenario planning workshop with resource managers and scientists working in Marin County that focused on analyzing the scenario approach in the context of other approaches. It also describes cases of public agency and private conservation non‐profit organizations working on resource management problems under climate change.


  8. Developing Adaptation Strategies for San Luis Obispo County: Preliminary Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Social Systems
    Lead Agency: CEC
    Principal Investigator(s): Susanne C. Moser, Julia A. Ekstrom (Susanne Moser Research & Consulting, Santa Cruz and University of California, Berkeley)
    Year finished: 2012
    Published/Product: http://energy.ca.gov/publications/displayOneReport.php?pubNum=CEC-500-2012-054
    Notes
    San Luis Obispo faces a variety of risks from climate change, including extreme heat, a generally drier climate, increases in extreme weather events, and sea-level rise. Important vulnerabilities are apparent for water supplies, in agriculture (especially for wine and cattle ranchers) and related tourism, for fishing, coastal tourism, coastal development and infrastructure, and for community services. Certain county populations may face disproportionate risks including the elderly, those already affected by diseases, and outdoor and migrant workers from extreme heat, people living in coastal and inland floodplains, those living at the wildland-urban interface, the student population, institutionalized individuals (especially the state hospital), and those members of the community that tend to be somewhat disenfranchised from public decision-making, such as non-English speaking individuals and those who can’t afford to take off from work to attend public meetings. The county is wise to begin planning and building its adaptive capacity at this time before climate change impacts become more severe, and before there may be greater competition for state and federal financial support for adaptation planning and implementation.


  9. Developing an Inventory for High GWP-GHGs
    Lead Agency: ARB
    Principal Investigator(s): Glenn Gallagher (ARB)
    Year finished: 2012, Budget: $199,840
    Notes
    This effort will determine high global warming potential (GWP) greenhouse gas emissions of flourocarbons (a.k.a. "F gases," namely CFCs, HFCs, and HCFCs) in California from 1990 to 2020 to assist in GHG inventory development and AB 32 implementation. The project puts particular emphasis on stationary and mobile source emissions from air conditioning systems.


  10. Development and Application of Downscaled Hydroclimatic Predictor Variables for Use in Climate Vulnerability and Assessment Studies
    Lead Agency: CEC
    Principal Investigator(s): Thorne, James, Ryan Boynton, Lorraine Flint, Alan Flint, And Thuy ‐ N’Goc Le (University of California, Davis)
    Year finished: 2012
    Published/Product: http://energy.ca.gov/publications/displayOneReport.php?pubNum=CEC-500-2012-010
    Notes
    This paper outlines the production of 270 meter grid‐scale maps for 14 climate and derivative hydrologic variables for a region that encompasses the State of California and all the streams that flow into it. The paper describes the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a map ‐ based, mechanistic model used to process the hydrological var i ables. Three historic and three future time periods of 30 years (1911–1940, 1941–1970, 1971–2000, 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070– 2099) were developed that summarize 180 years of monthly historic and future climate values. These comprise a standardized set of fine ‐ scale climate data that were shared with 14 research groups, incl uding the U.S. National Park Service and several University of California groups as part of this project. The paper presents three analyses done with the outputs from the Basin Characterization Model: trends in hydrologic variables over baseline, the most recent 30 ‐ year period; a calibration and validation effort that uses measured discharge values from 139 streamgages and compares those to Basin Characterization Model‐derived projections of discharge for the same basins; and an assessment of the trends of specific hydrological variables that links historical trend to projected future change under four future climate projections. 500-09-038


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